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Satellites to be Built & Launched by 2026

Satellites to be Built & Launched by 2026, a landmark study in its 20th edition, is a complete analysis & forecast of satellite manufacturing & launch services. | Published October 2017

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Includes the report in PDF format & Excel files

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Satellites to Be Built & Launched by 2026, World Market Survey is a required reading for anyone interested in the business generated by satellite systems and their launches. The report is fully updated, providing all the key figures and analysis needed to understand the global space market, and the future opportunities & challenges.

• Customers: Civilian government, military government, commercial companies
• Applications: Fixed & mobile communications, TV & radio broadcasting, navigation, Earth observation, meteorology, data relay, science, IMINT/ELINT/SIGINT…
• Orbits: LEO, MEO/HEO, GEO, Deep Space 
 
Highlights of the Report 

According to the 20th edition of the report, Euroconsult anticipates that 300 satellites with a mass over 50 kg will be launched on average each year by 2026 for government agencies and commercial organizations worldwide. This is a threefold increase over the past decade as the satellite market experiences a paradigm shift with the rise of small satellites and mega constellations, such as that of OneWeb. 

The space industry is undergoing a massive change in volume as cubesats/nanosats and the large constellations of small satellites have begun to revolutionize satellite design,  testing and production, and launch as well, as illustrated by OneWeb. However, it remains to be seen how these new satellite concepts will incentivize demand for satellite services on Earth through lower costs, especially considering that, ultimately, the cost of ownership for satellite services also includes a large investment on the ground. 

The 3,000 satellites over 50 kg to be launched over 2017–2026 should represent a market of $304 billion for the space industry in terms of building and launching,  an average of $30 billion per year (up 25% over past decade). A price decrease is visible in this core market of the space industry, driven by 23 commercial constellations launching a total of 1,800 small satellites (of which about 1,000 for OneWeb) into low or medium Earth orbits for communications or Earth observation.

Over three-quarters of the future space market remains with Governments; the 1,000 satellites to be launched for civilian and military agencies in 60 countries will represent a market of $239 billion. Over 85% of the government market will remain concentrated in the 10 countries with an established space industry (the U.S., Russia, China, Japan, India and the top five European countries). Still, the other 50 countries engaged in space activities will launch almost 200 satellites, twice the number they launched over the past 10 years.

In the commercial space sector, Euroconsult believes that about 2,000 satellites will be launched over the decade, of which about half solely for OneWeb. Almost two-thirds of the commercial space market of $65 billion will remain concentrated in geostationary orbit, the destination of 150 new satellites for communications and broadcasting services. The 1,800 satellites to be launched into non-geostationary orbits for the 23 constellations to collect or transport data should represent a market of $2 billion per year on average over the decade.

New in the 2017 edition:

  • Retrospective analysis of Euroconsult’s forecast matching with satellite reality over the past 17 years
  • Market share of the satellites of the report relative to the CubeSat and mega-comsat constellations
  • New data series in Excel files
  • New format & layout
 
 
Structure of the report:

The methodology and segmentation for Euroconsult’s survey have been consistent throughout all editions of the survey since its first release 21 years ago. If improvements have been introduced in the granularity of the forecast, the two basic principles have remained the same:

-Mutually exclusive and completely exhaustive segmentation (see below) in order to be representative of the whole space industry (but to avoid double counting);
-Large constellation projects (as of today or in the late 1990s) always individualized for comparison to be consistent over the long term.
 

The report includes five parts to comprehensively address the demand and supply sides of satellite manufacturing and launch services:

Part 1: Forecast in satellite manufacturing and launch services in number of satellites, tons to orbit and revenues over the next ten years (by client and by orbit) with drivers of future satellite demand
Part 2: Structure of the satellite manufacturing industry and of launch services at two levels (GEO and non-GEO) with market shares and profiles of 12 commercial satellite companies 
Part 3: Forecast of commercial satellite demand for communications/broadcasting and Earth observation, both with individual satellites and constellations of small satellites
Part 4: Forecast of government satellite demand for civilian and military agencies for a wide range of applications and orbits
Part 5: Nominative satellite database with the backlog of commercial satellites under construction for launch over 2017-2021, and Euroconsult's forecast of 1,000 government satellites to be launched over 2017-2026


01 STRATEGIC ISSUES AND FORECASTS FOR THE WORLD SPACE INDUSTRY 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

METHODOLOGY, DEFINITION & ACRONYMS

TRENDS IN SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES 

•Three metrics for the world space industry in the past decade (2007-2016)
•100 satellites launched in 2016 for a market value of $32 billion
•Civilian government agencies continue to drive growth in satellite demand
•Three times more satellites to be launched by 2026 compared to past decade
•The big picture in the satellite market: The mega ComSat constellations and the CubeSat/NanoSat
•Mass to orbit due to increase by 43% between the two decades
•Industry revenues to grow by 25% in the decade
•Three-quarters of the satellites into LEO, nearly 40% of revenues in GEO for next decade
•Distribution of future space industry revenues

 

MARKET DRIVERS FOR FUTURE SATELLITE DEMAND

•Satellite systems upstream to provide satellite-based services downstream
•Three value chains in commercial satellite services with differing maturity
•Vertical integration & horizontal concentration along the value chain
•Better CAPEX efficiency of comsats driven by new technology in all orbits (GEO, MEO, LEO)
•Small satellites for government missions, both in established space powers and newcomers
•Small satellites for commercial constellations, both for ComSat and EOSat
•Private equity funding for smallsat constellations
•Technical risks also part of the economic equation of satellite investment

 

02 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT & PERFORMANCE OF MARKET PLAYERS

 THE SPACE INDUSTRY GLOBALLY

THE SATELLITE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY 

•Consolidation & vertical integration in the supply chain
•A limited number of experienced satellite integrators
•Financial performance of the satellite industry
•The communication satellite (ComSat) industry
•The non-GEO commercial satellite industry
•Strategic issues for the small satellite industry

 

PROFILES OF 12 COMMERCIAL SATELLITE COMPANIES

•Airbus
•Boeing
•China Academy of Space Technology
•Israel Aerospace Industries
•ISS Reshetnev
•Lockheed Martin
•MDA/SSL
•Mitsubishi Electric
•OHB
•Orbital ATK
•Surrey Satellite
•Thales Alenia Space

 

THE LAUNCH SERVICE INDUSTRY 

•Structure of the space transportation industry
•Financial performance of the space transportation industry
•The GEO launch industry
•The LEO launch industry
 

PROFILES OF THREE COMMERCIAL LAUNCH SERVICE PROVIDERS

•Arianespace
•ILS
•SpaceX

 

03 COMMERCIAL SATELLITE DEMAND

 ASSUMPTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITE DEMAND 

DEMAND CONTEXT FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITES 

•The three orbits (GEO, MEO, LEO) are now commercial and working together
•Commercial space still means communication satellites (ComSat) in GEO orbit
 

THE COMMERCIAL MARKET BY APPLICATION

•A mature GEO ComSat market driven by replacing in-orbit capacity
•Future GEO ComSat demand highly uncertain in the short term
•GEO ComSats are unique for broadcasting and broadband communications
•ComSat market driven by consolidation of operators & new entrants
•In-orbit servicing of ComSats systems
•Eight constellations for low latency broadband communications
•Earth observation at just over 10% of commercial space
 
 

04 GOVERNMENT SATELLITE DEMAND

 ASSUMPTIONS FOR GOVERNMENT SATELLITE DEMAND 

GOVERNMENT MARKET HIERARCHY

•Market hierarchy between customers, applications & regions
•Growth in future government demand is driven by civilian satellites
•Earth observation dominant for both civilian and military satellites
•Asia dominates by far for civilian satellites and the USA for military satellites
•Newcomer space countries at 11% of market value
 

MARKET DYNAMICS BY ORBIT 

MARKET DYNAMIC BY APPLICATION  

05 SATELLITE BACKLOG & FORECAST

TWO DATABASES EXCLUSIVE TO EUROCONSULT

Backlog of 1,300 commercial satellites under construction for launch over 2017-2021

Euroconsult’s forecast of 1,000 government satellites to be launched over 2017-2026.

For each satellite, the following information is provided : 

•Name of the satellite
•Year of launch
•Name and country of the operator
•Application of the satellite
•Orbit of the satellite
•Satellite manufacturer
•Satellite bus
•Design lifetime of the satellite
•Launch mass of the satellite
•Launch service provider
•Launch vehicle  


Editor-in-Chief

Rachel Villain, Principal Advisor


Development Team

Maxime Puteaux, Senior Consultant 

Badia Belkouchi, Consultant

Sylvie Bellin, Consutlant

Alexandre Najjar, Consultant

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