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Satellites to be Built & Launched by 2025

Satellites to be Built & Launched by 2025, a landmark study in its 19th edition, is a complete analysis & forecast of satellite manufacturing & launch services. | Published September 2016

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Satellites to be Built & Launched by 2025, World Market Survey is a required reading for anyone interested in the business generated by satellite systems and their launches. The report is fully updated, providing all the key figures and analysis needed to understand the global space market, and the future opportunities & challenges.

  • Customers: Civilian government, military government, commercial companies
  • Applications: Fixed & mobile communications, TV & radio broadcasting, navigation, Earth observation, meteorology, data relay, science, IMINT/ELINT/SIGINT…
  • Orbits: LEO, MEO/HEO, GEO, Deep Space


Highlights of the Report

Euroconsult anticipates that 145 satellites with launch mass over 50kg will be launched on average each year by 2025 for government agencies and commercial organizations worldwide. When including satellites smaller than 50kg and the two mega constellations of OneWeb and SpaceX, the total for the decade would grow precipitously to 9,000 units (vs. 1,480 launched in the past ten years.)

The 1,450 satellites over 50kg to be launched over 2016-2025 should represent a market of $250 billion for the space industry to build and launch. A price decrease is visible in this core market of the industry, driven by 11 commercial constellations using 370 small satellites to be deployed into low or medium Earth orbits for communications or Earth observation.

Still, over three quarters of the market remains with government satellites; the 880 satellites to be launched for civilian and military agencies in 60 countries represent a market of $193 billion. Governments dominate the space industry as established space countries replace and expand their in-orbit satellite systems and more countries acquire their first operational satellite systems, usually for communications or for Earth observation and imagery intelligence. About 85% of the government market will remain concentrated in the ten countries with an established space industry (U.S., Russia, China, Japan, India, and five European countries). The other 50 countries engaged in space activities will launch twice the number of satellites that they did inthe past ten years, i.e. almost 200 satellites. About half of these satellites will be procured from foreign manufacturers as domestic industry capabilities develop in these countries.

In the commercial space sector, Euroconsult anticipates a total of 560 satellites to be launched over the decade by 40 companies. Most of these satellites will be for the replacement of the communications capacity currently in orbit. Over two-thirds of the commercial space market remaions concentrated in geostationary orbit, the destination of almost 300 satellites operated by 30 companies for communications and broadcasting services. The 11 commercial constellations to be launched into non-geostationary orbits for communications and Earth observation imagery should represent a market of $1.6 billion per year on average over the decade.

New in the 2016 edition:

  • Retrospective analysis of Euroconsult's forecast matching with satellite reality over the past 16 years
  • Marketshare of the satellites of the report relative to the cubesat and mega-comsat constellations
  • New data series in Excel files
  • New format and layout

 

 Structure of the report

The methodology for the report has been consistent all along its 19 editions since its first release 20 years ago. If improvements have been introduced in the granularity of the forecast, two principles have remained the same:

  • Mutually Exclusive and Completely Exhaustive (MECE) segmentation in order to be representative o fthe whole space industry (but to avoid double counting)
  • Large constellation projects (as of today orin the late 1990s) always individualized in order for comparison to be consistent over a long time

The report includes five parts to comprehensively address the demand and supply sides of satellite manufacturing and launch services:

  • Part 1: Forecast in satellite manufacturing and launch services in number of satellites, tons to orbit and revenues over the next ten years (by client and by orbit) with drivers of future satellite demand
  • Part 2: Structure of the satellite manufacturing industry and of launch services at two levels (GEO and non-GEO) with market shares and profiles of 24 commercial companies
  • Part 3: Forecast of commercial satellite demand for communications/broadcasting and Earth observation, both with individual satellites and constellations of small satellites
  • Part 4: Forecast of government satellite demand for civilian and military agencies for a wide range of applications and orbits
  • Part 5: Nominative satellite database with the backlog of commercial satellites under construction for launch by 2020 and Euroconsult's forecast of the government satellites to be launched by 2025


01 STRATEGIC ISSUES & FORECASTS FOR THE WORLD SPACE INDUSTRY


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

METHODOLOGY, DEFINITION & ACRONYMS

TRENDS IN SATELLITE MANUFACTURING & LAUNCH SERVICES

  • Three metrics for the world spacd industry in the past decade
  • 110 satellites launched in 2015 for a market value of $26 billion
  • Civilian government agencies continue to drive growth in satellite demand
  • 54% increase in satellites launched decade-to-decade
  • The big picture in the satellite market
  • Mass to orbit due to increase by 33% between the two decades
  • Industry revenues to grow by 14% in the decade
  • Over half of the satellites into LEO; 40% of revenues in GEO
  • Distribution of future space industry revenues

 

MARKET DRIVERS FOR FUTURE SATELLITE DEMAND

  • Satellite systems upstream to provide satellite-based services downstream
  • Three value chains in commercial satellite services with different maturity
  • Vertical integratin & horizontal concentration along the value chain
  • Better CAPEX efficiency of the GEO comsat driven by new technology
  • Small satellites for government missions
  • Private equity funding new commercial constellations, in the U.S. first
  • Technical risks also part of the economic equation of satellite investment

 

02 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT & PERFORMANCE OF MARKET PLAYERS


THE SPACE INDUSTRY GLOBALLY

THE SATELLITE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

  • Consolidation & vertical integration in the supply chain
  • A limited number of experienced satellite integrators
  • Trends in financial performance of the satellite industry
  • The GEO communications satellite (comsat) industry
  • The non-GEO commercial satellite industry
  • Strategic trends impacting the satellite manufacturing industry


PROFILES OF 21 COMMERCIAL SATELLITE MANUFACTURING COMPANIES

THE LAUNCH SERVICE INDUSTRY

  • Structure of the space transportation industry
  • The GEO launch industry
  • The LEO launch industry


PROFILES OF THREE COMMERCIAL LAUNCH SERVICE PROVIDERS

03 COMMERCIAL SATELLITE DEMAND

ASSUMPTIONS FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITE DEMAND

DEMAND CONTEXT FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITES

  • Commercial space still means communications satellites in GEO orbit


THE COMMERCIAL MARKET BY APPLICATION

  • GEO comsat for privately-owned & government companies
  • GEO comsat are unique for broadcasting & broadband communications
  • Two regions concentrate two-thirds of future GEO comsat demand
  • Future demand for GEO comsat driven by a double trade-off
  • In-orbit servicing for GEO comsat
  • Satellite constellations for low latency broadband communications
  • Earth observation at less than 10 of commercial space


04 GOVERNMENT SATELLITE DEMAND


ASSUMPTIONS FOR GOVERNMENT SATELLITE DEMAND

THE GOVERNMENT SATELLITE MARKET

  • Market hierarchy between customers, applications & regions
  • Market dynamic by orbit
  • Market dynamic by application


05 SATELLITE BACKLOG & FORECAST


TWO DATABASES EXCLUSIVE TO EUROCONSULT

Backlog of 225 commercial satellites under construction for launch over 2016-2020 is a complement to the marke forecast established by Euroconsult on the number and types of commercial satellites to be manufactured for launch by 2025.

Euroconsult's forecast of 880 government satellites to be launched over 2016-2025, including the nominative satellites (under construction as of January 2016) and those that are planned to be launched by 2025 as a follow-on to existing systems or as new systems.

For each satellite, the following information is provided:

  • Name of the satellite
  • Year of launch
  • Name and country of the operator
  • Application of the satellite
  • Orbit of the satellite
  • Satellite manufacturer
  • Satellite bus
  • Design lifetime of the satellite
  • Launch mass of the satellite
  • Launch service provider
  • Launch vehicle


Editor-in-Chief

Rachel Villain, Principal Advisor, villain@euroconsult-ec.com

Development Team

Maxime Puteaux, Consutlant
Sylvie Bellin, Consutlant
Sunil Manjunath,  Consultant

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