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Prospects for Cellular Backhaul in Fast-Growing Economies Maximize

Prospects for Cellular Backhaul in Fast-Growing Economies

Prospects for Cellular Backhaul in Fast-Growing Economies. Assessing the market size, key dynamics and drivers for cellular backhaul over satellite in fast-growing economic regions. | Published in July 2015

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Prospects for the Cellular Backhaul in Fast-Growing Economies is an assessment of the market size, key dynamics and drivers for cellular backhaul over satellite in fast-growing economic regions.

Highlights from the report:

Capacity revenues from cellular backhaul in fast-growing economies could reach over $1 billion by 2025, up from around $550 million in 2014, corresponding to a 6$ CAGR over the ten-year period. These numbers reflect a sustained increase in the number of sites using satellite backhaul, leading to around 37,000 sites by 2025. These forecasts also recognize a 14% CAGR in traffic carried that should reach around 150 Gbps by 2025, along with a corresponding 8% CAGR for capacity used in MHz reaching close to 45 GHz by 2025, when taking into account spectrum efficiency.

High Throughput Satellite (HTS) usage remained limited to a few regions and certain payloads until recently due to, among other factors, the cautious nature of industry adoption and ramp-up. An important driver for increased traffic over HTS systems moving forward is 3G expansion, which can economically only be carried over HTS and thereby allay service providers’ concerns over CAPEX needs and network availability.

Report Elements:

  • 50 pages 
  • Over 90 graphs & tables
  • Thousands of data points
  • Comprehensive PDF & Excel files 
  • Price starting at € 3,500

 

 List of Graphs & Tables

1- OVERVIEW OF CELLULAR BACKHAUL MARKET

OVERVIEW OF TRENDS IN THE CELLULAR MARKET:

  • MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS IN ASSESSED REGIONS (2010-2015)
  • TYPICAL CURRENT ARPU FOR MOBILE SERVICES
  • ESTIMATED TOTAL NUMBER OF MOBILE BASE STATIONS (2015 VS. 2020)


GLOBAL MOBILE PENETRATION AND POPULATION COVERAGE:

  • MOBILE PENETRATION BY REGION (2010 VS. 2015)
     

ECONOMIC MODEL FOR MOBILE OPERATORS:

  • A WIDENING GAP BETWEEN REVENUE AND TRAFFIC DRIVEN BY DATA USAGE
  • TYPICAL MNO REVENUE BREAKDOWN
  • TYPICAL COST OF OWNERSHIP FOR A GSM RAN IN MEA MARKETS USING VSAT
     

OVERVIEW OF THE VALUE CHAIN FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL

  • SATELLITE BACKHAUL PROCESS FOR MACRO AND SMALL CELLS
     

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF BTS USING SATELLITE-BASED CELLULAR BACKHAUL:

  • ESTIMATES OF BTS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE PER COUNTRY (2012)
  • GROWTH IN ESTIMATED NUMBER OF BTS PER REGION
  • ESTIMATED SHARE OF SATELLITE SERVED BTS IN TOTAL BTS
  • GROWTH IN ESTIMATED NUMBER OF BTS (CUMULATED)
     

CURRENT SATELLITE CAPACITY USED FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL:

  • ESTIMATED TRAFFIC USED BY BTS USING SATELLITE BACKHAUL
  • ESTIMATED NUMBER OF REGULAR TPES USED FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL
  • ESTIMATED CAPACITY USED ON HTS SYSTEMS FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL
  • ESTIMATED CAPACITY USED ON HTS SYSTEMS FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL
     

SATELLITE BACKHAUL VS OTHER ALTERNATIVES:

  • TRANSMISSION COST COMPARISON OF CELLULAR BACKHAUL ALTERNATIVES
  • LATENCY ASSOCIATED WITH SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE BACKHAUL USAGE
     

MAP OF SATELLITE-BASED CELLULAR BACKHAUL MARKET

2- DRIVERS FOR FUTURE GROWTH

EXTENSION OF CELLULAR NETWORKS AND MARKET:

  • SUBSCRIPTIONS TO MOBILE SERVICES BY REGION
  • MOBILE PENETRATION BY REGION (IN PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION)
     

UNIVERSAL ACCESS AND SUPPORT FUNDS

GROWTH OF 3G AND 4G NETWORKS AND TRAFFIC:

  • ESTIMATED GROWTH IN 3G PENETRATION
  • SMARTPHONE CONNECTIONS
  • ESTIMATED GROWTH IN 4G PENETRATION
     

BUSINESS CASE OF 3G BACKHAUL OVER SATELLITE:

  • SATELLITE CAPACITY COST (ESTIMATE FOR YEAR 2017)
  • TCO FOR 3G BTS USING SATELLITE AND RESULTING ARPU REQUIRED 
  • CURRENT MOBILE ARPU LEVELS (MOSTLY 2G) AND RANGE OF 3G PRICE PLANS
     

NETWORK OPTIMIZATION AND SPECTRUM EFFICIENCY:

  • SPECTRUM EFFICIENCY - PREVIOUS STREAM OF INNOVATION
  • SPECTRUM EFFICIENCY TREND FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL
     

CHANGES AT LEVEL OF BASE STATIONS:

  • LARGE DECREASE IN EQUIPMENT COST OF MOBILE BTS HAS BOOSTED DEMAND…
  • …WHILE THE REGULAR CAPACITY VSAT TERMINAL PRICES GET STABILIZES (2003-2015)
  • SMALL CELLS WITH BTS SHARING FINDING TRACTION EVEN IN ADVANCED MOBILE MARKETS
  • MULTI OPERATOR CORE NETWORK WITH SHARED RNC
     

HTS DEPLOYMENTS REMAIN LIMITED SO FAR IN EMERGING REGIONS

  • ESTIMATED RANGE OF CAPACITY PRICING AND LATENCY, HTS SYSTEMS VS. REGULAR
  • ESTIMATED RANGE OF CAPACITY AVAILABLE IN A BEAM OF AN HTS SYSTEM
  • SAMPLE OF CAPACITY CONTRACTS SIGNED WITH HTS SYSTEMS AND INVOLVING CELLULAR BACKHAUL SERVICES
     

HTS SYSTEMS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

  • O3B TERMINAL PRICE RANGE DEPENDING ON ANTENNA SIZE / CAPACITY REQUIREMENTS
  • CASE: SUCCESSFUL RURAL 3G DEPLOYMENTS 
  • NETWORK DESIGN FOR MCPC PROJECT
     

TRENDS IN CAPACITY PRICING

  • CAPACITY PRICING FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL IN REGULAR C- AND KU-BANDS
  • CAPACITY PRICING FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL ON HTS SYSTEMS
  • AVERAGE CAPACITY PRICING FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL IN 2014 BY REGION
     

ROADMAP FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL OVER SATELLITE - FROM 2G TO 3G FOCUS

SYNTHETIC SWOT ANALYSIS FOR CELLULAR BACKHAUL

SYNTHESIS OF MARKET FORECASTS:

  • MOBILE BASE STATIONS USING SATELLITE BACKHAUL
  • TRAFFIC CARRIED OVER SATELLITE BY TYPE OF MOBILE BTS
  • SATELLITE CAPACITY USAGE, BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF PAYLOAD
  • SATELLITE CAPACITY REVENUE, BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF PAYLOAD
     

SYNTHESIS OF MARKET FORECASTS:

  • MOBILE BASE STATIONS USING SATELLITE BACKHAUL BY REGION
  • SATELLITE TRAFFIC BY REGION
  • SATELLITE CAPACITY USED BY REGION
  • SATELLITE CAPACITY REVENUE BY REGION
     

REGIONAL FOCUSES:

GRAPHS FOR EACH REGION

  • MOBILE BASE STATIONS USING SATELLITE BACKHAUL
  • TRAFFIC CARRIED OVER SATELLITE BY TYPE OF MOBILE BTS
  • SATELLITE CAPACITY USAGE, BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF PAYLOAD
  • SATELLITE CAPACITY REVENUE,BREAKDOWN BY TYPE OF PAYLOAD
     

INCLUDES REGIONAL MAPS OF CELLULAR

BACKHAUL MARKET OVER SATELLITE

1- OVERVIEW OF THE CELLULAR BACKHAUL MARKET

  • Overview of trends in the cellular market
  • Global mobile penetration and population coverage
  • Economic model for mobile operators
  • Overview of the value chain for cellular backhaul
  • Satellite backhaul process for macro and small cells
  • Operating process for satellite-based cellular backhaul
  • Estimated number of BTS using satellite-based cellular backhaul
  • Current satellite capacity used for cellular backhaul 
  • Satellite backhaul vs other alternatives
  • Map of satellite based cellular backhaul market


DRIVERS FOR FUTURE GROWTH

  • Extension of cellular networks and market 
  • Universal access and support funds 
  • Growth of 3G and 4G networks and traffic 
  • Business case of 3G backhaul over satellite 
  • Network optimization and spectrum efficiency 
  • Changes at the level of base stations
  • Small cells with BTS sharing finding traction even in advanced mobile markets
  • HTS deployments remain limited so far in emerging regions
  • HTS Systems: Challenges and opportunities
  • Case: Successful rural 3G deployments 
  • Roadmap for cellular backhaul over satellite – from 2G to 3G focus
  • Synthetic swot analysis for cellular backhaul
  • Synthesis of market forecasts


3- REGIONAL MARKET ANALYSIS

  • LATIN AMERICA 
  • MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA 
  • SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
  • RUSSIA & CENTRAL ASIA
  • SOUTH ASIA
  • REST OF ASIA


Regional overviews, including:

  • Size and dynamics of the mobile market 
  • Current satellite use in terms of sites, traffic and capacity
  • Growth drivers, including:
  • Prospects for the mobile market
  • Focus on trends in mobile broadband (3G and beyond)
  • Focus on key countries for satellite use
  • Traffic and spectrum efficiency 
  • HTS deployment & adoption
     

Forecasts (2009-2024), including:

  • Mobile base stations using satellite backhaul (2G, 3G connectivity)
  • Traffic carried over satellite in MBPS
  • Satellite capacity usage in MHz (Regular capacity, HTS)
  • Capacity revenue (Regular capacity, HTS)

Development Team

Pacome Revillon, CEO and Editor-in-Chief

Ariel P. Bruno, Consultant

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