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Prospects for L-Band, IoT & M2M Markets

Prospects for L-Band, IoT & M2M Markets. The comprehensive in-depth analysis of key trends and drivers, market forecasts in revenue and terminals by vertical, geographic and application segment. 
| Published September 2017

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Prospects for L-Band, IoT & M2M Markets is an expert analysis of the mobile satellite industry, assessing key trends and drivers in this market characterized by both a number of growth opportunities and challenges for key players. Satellite operators, service providers, investors, manufacturers & launchers, telecoms companies, space agencies and other actors use the exclusive ten-year forecasts in their business and investment planning and strategic decision-making.

Highlights from the report:

The MSS market will grow from 4.3 million terminals in 2016 to more than 12 million terminals by 2026. M2M/IoT devices will have a significant share in this subscriber growth, while their contribution to operators' revenues should be more limited. MSS wholesale revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.2% between 2016 and 2026, driven by MSS aero broadband, M2M.IoT applications and other services increasingly addressing lower-end segments and emerging regions, such as the promising small boats segment.

The diversification and improvement in MSS products should be enabled by recent and upcoming MSS systems including Iridium NEXT (under deployment), Inmarsat's I-6 (expected in 2020), Thuraya's next generation constellation (planned for 2020 but no satellite yet ordered) and a new generation of hybrid networks from Globalstar and Ligado Networks. These systems should allow for new, higher data-rate services, and will combine with new ground solutions and terminals.

Increasing competition from VSAT mobile solutions, due to more efficient equipment and lower capacity costs, is expected to weigh on MSS's market share in the high-end, high-ARPU markets. MSS operators will thus have to review their positioning and address new segments less addressable by VSAT solutions, such as smaller classes of ships, aircraft, not to mention potential upsides related to connected cars and IoT.

The global IoT market, including terrestrial IoT, should experience exponential growth in the coming years; MSS operators are reinforcing their positions in the segment, with the number of M2M/IoT terminals reaching oer 20% growth in just the first half of 2017. Moreover, about ten constellation projects targeting IoT are currently under consideration by start-ups, intending to benefit from the momentum in the sector.

Single-digit growth is expected for the global MSS market, despite lower global MSS ARPUs over the period due to increasing VSAT competition:

  • Maritime MSS wholesale revenues are expected to decrease with a -2% CAGR over the next ten years, an effect of the migration toward VSAT solutions in the medium to high-end maritime markets, while low ARPUs of small boats should not offset that churn.
  • The land market is expected to grow at a fast pace in number of terminals at a 10-year CAGR of 12%, with growth led by the increasing demand for M2M.IoT terminals.
  • Driven by strong growth in broadband terminals from business aviation as well as cockpit connectivity for commercial airlines, aeronautical wholesale revenues are expected to increase with a 4% CAGR over the coming decade.

 

Report elements:

  • Hundreds of graphs & tables
  • Thousands of data points
  • Comprehensive digital files

 

Key trends, drivers & forecasts:

  • Current demand for MSS communications
  • Key trends & major applications
  • Ten-year forecasts (wholesale revenue & terminals)
  • MSS operators: Financials, strategies & positioning
  • Value chain & distribution
  • Market segments: Maritime, Land, Aero, IoT, Government
  • Business models, major trends, competition
  • Applications & devices, regulation
  • Key assumptions & forecasts to 2026

 

Who will benefit from this report?

  • Satellite operators
  • Service providers
  • Equipment manufacturers
  • Banks & investors
  • Telecommunications companies
  • Satellite manufacturers
  • Launchers
  • Space & other government agencies

 

 

 

01 - Strategic Issues & Forecasts

  • The MSS sector is heading to a new era in a challenging market environment
  • Product innovation to keep MSS moving forward
  • Key vertical segments for sustainable growth
  • Increasing competition from VSAT services
  • New generation L-band services to bring new opportunities
  • Strong growth opportunities in the IoT market
  • Market forecasts to 2026

 

02 - MSS Value Chain

  • Three operators account for 86% of the market today
  • Recent revenue growth trends
  • Operators' strategies and positioning
  • Business model of MSS service providers
  • More diversified distribution channel for mass market products
  • Various strategies of equipment manufacturers
  • Direct and indirect equipment sales models
  • Key equipment manufacturers active in both the MSS and VSAT markets

 

03 - Maritime Market

  • A slowing maritime MSS market
  • The maritime addressable market
  • Maritime traffic and regional trends
  • A large range of MSS products driving growth
  • Maritime broadband struggling to face VSAT competition
  • Opportunities in the M2M market
  • Service providers new offering large portfolio of solutions
  • Regulations still playing critical role
  • Key trends and drivers
  • VSAT competition
  • Commercial maritime forecasts to 2026

 

04 - Aeronautical Market

  • $147 million in wholesale service revenues in the MSS aero market in 2016
  • Dynamics of the addressable market
  • Business aviation: A major addressable market for MSS
  • Commercial airlines drive the need for cockpit communication
  • Room for growth in the helicopter market
  • Inmarsat: The pioneer MSS operator in the aviation market
  • Iridium: The leading MSS operator in business aviation
  • Regulations
  • Potential growth for broadband communications
  • M2M mainly used for cockpit communications
  • Drivers and inhibitors of the MSS market growth
  • Space-based ADS-B
  • Commercial aeronautical forecasts to 2026

 

05 - Land Market

  • A large mix of applications
  • A strong competitive landscape for MSS operators
  • Natural disasters pushing land MSS demand
  • Voice as the leading land mobile application
  • Professional users as key satellite phone users
  • Established players are setting high product prices
  • An event-driven handheld market
  • Land broadband data applications facing increasing competition
  • BGAN dominating in land broadband
  • Low revenue share for M2M but high share in terminals
  • Business model and value-added resellers' role
  • Large opportunities for M2M in the land market
  • New networks to bring new opportunities for M2M in the land market
  • Various terrestrial technologies still heightening competition
  • Commercial land forecasts to 2026

 

06 - Internet of Things Market

  • Introduction
  • Network technologies: comparative advantages
  • Emerging low power wide area networks
  • Satellite and hybrid networks
  • Summary of IoT network’s characteristics
  • Value chain
  • LTE-M & NB-IoT deployment by the end of 2017
  • Unlicensed spectrum deployment by the end of 2017
  • Satellite network operators
  • Hardware manufacturers
  • Software and platform providers
  • Growth drivers
  • Data and cybersecurity challenges
  • The evolution of M2M
  • Main applications
  • Connected cars
  • Industrial IoT (IIoT)
  • Specific Industries: Oil & Gas 
  • Specific Industries: Smart Agriculture
  • Smart supply chain
  • Smart city
  • Market forecasts
  • Market forecasts per regions


07 - Government Market

  • Government is a key market for MSS operators
  • The U.S. as the single largest MSS customer
  • Key requirements and applications for government users
  • Different types of government users
  • Service distribution for government/military users
  • Competition from other satellite systems
  • Future MSS milsatcom are expected to change
  • Government forecasts to 2026

 

Editor-in-Chief

Pacome REVILLON, CEO

Development Team

Sima FISHMAN, Managing Director, Euroconsult USA

Santiago PEREZ, Senior Consultant

Florent RIZZO, Consultant

Tom CHINICK, Consultant

Juliette CAILLAULT, Consultant

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