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Government Space Forecasts

Government Space Programs: Strategic Outlook, Benchmarks & Forecasts to 2024 is a 360 degree view on key economic and program trends for government space applications. 6th Edition | Published October 2015

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Government Space Programs: Strategic Outlook, Benchmarks & Forecasts is an in-depth assessment exploring all essential applications for government space programs. The research report provides unique insights and benchmarks for government agencies and industry players seeking opportunities in government space markets.It covers all major space applications, offering exclusive forecasts and analysis on government policies, strategies and expenditures at global and regional levels.

Highlights from the report:

A new growth cycle in government space spending is expected to start and average 2.1% over the next ten years worldwide, reaching $81.4 billion by 2024. Despite budget cuts, governments should maintain high launch rates over the next decade: 856 government satellites are planned for launch between 2015 and 2024, i.e. a 32% increase from the last decade, driven by civil Earth observation, communications and satellite navigation missions. 242 defense satellites are expected to be launched over the next 10 years, an 11% increase compared to the past of which 40% will be launched for the U.S. government.

The international landscape is experiencing profound mutations with a diversification of countries investing in space; the number of countries investing over $10 million in space activities has grown from 38 in 2005 to 58 in 2014. International suppliers are competing fiercely for these business opportunities, with China currently accounting for 28% of communications satellites ordered by emerging programs, and Europe for 54% of Earth observation satellites.


KEY FEATURES 

  • Over 60 pages
  • More than 160 full page graphs and tables
  • PDF & Excel Files
  • Covers 7 major applications

     

WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM THE REPORT?

  • Administrations & Space Agencies
  • Satellite & Equipment Manufacturers
  • Satellite Operators
  • Launch Service Providers
  • Investors & Financial Institutions


The 6th edition includes:

  • Seven applications analyzed in detail
  • Civil & defense organizations, assessed both 
  • jointly and separately
  • Six world regions: North America, Latin America, Europe, Russia/CIS, Middle East & Africa, and Asia
  • Two time periods of reference: 2005-2014 for historical trends and 2015-2024 for forecasts

 

Space applications covered:

  • Manned Spaceflight
  • Earth Observation 
  • Launch Vehicles
  • Satellite Communications
  • Satellite Navigation
  • Space Science & Exploration
  • Space Security

 

LIST OF GRAPHS

1- STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
TOTAL GOVERNMENT SATELLITES 1995-2024
CIVIL GOVERNMENT AND DEFENSE SATELLITES 1995-2024
2005-2014 GOVERNMENT SATELLITES
2015-2024 GOVERNMENT SATELLITES
SPENDING BY REGION 2005-2024
TOP 5 COUNTRIES
CIVIL SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY REGION
MILITARY SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY REGION
COUNTRIES INVESTING OVER 10M$
AVERAGE FUNDING BY EMERGING PROGRAMS
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY EMERGING PROGRAMS - BREAKDOWN BY REGION & BREAKDOWN BY APPLICATIONS
WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND SATELLITES LAUNCHED
EXPENDITURES 2014 (US$M) LAUNCHES 2005-2014
EXPENDITURES 2024 (US$M)LAUNCHES 2015-2024
SPENDING BY APPLICATIONS 2005-2024
TOP 5 APPLICATIONS
COUNTRIES INVESTING IN APPLICATIONS
10-YEAR CAGR COMPARISON
CIVIL SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY APPLICATION (2005-2024)
DEFENSE SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY APPLICATION (2015-2024)
YEARLY AVERAGE CIVIL SPENDING BY REGION (2005-2024)
YEARLY AVERAGE DEFENSE SPENDING BY REGION (2015-2024)

2- EARTH OBSERVATION
GOVERNMENT SPENDING FOR OBSERVATION (2005-2024)
WORLD BUDGET VS. SATELLITES LAUNCHED (2005-2024)
CIVIL AND DEFENSE SPENDING (2005-2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY REGION (2005-2024)
SPENDING FOR CIVIL PROGRAMS (2005-2024)
TOP 5 COUNTRIES/AGENCIES (2005-2024)
CIVIL SATELLITES LAUNCHED (2005-2024)
AVERAGE COST OF CIVIL SATELLITES LAUNCHED (2005-2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY EMERGED AND EMERGING PROGRAMS (2005-2024)
SAMPLE COSTS OF SATELLITES (2005-2024)
OPTICAL AND RADAR SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY EMERGED AND EMERGING PROGRAMS (2005-2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY EMERGED AND EMERGING PROGRAMS BY RESOLUTION (2005-2024)
SPENDING FOR DEFENSE EARTH OBSERVATION (2005-2024)
DEFENSE SATELLITES LAUNCHED (INCLUDING DUAL-USE) (2005-2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED (CIVIL AND DEFENSE)
AVERAGE COST OF CIVIL SATELLITES
NOAA BUDGET
EUMETSAT BUDGET
WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND SATELLITES LAUNCHED FOR EARTH OBSERVATION AND METEOROLOGY PROGRAMS
2014 EXPENDITURES (US$M) 2005-2014 LAUNCHES | 2024 FORECAST EXPENDITURES (US$M)2015-2024 FORECAST LAUNCHES
YEARLY AVERAGE CIVIL SPENDING BY REGION (2005-2024)
YEARLY AVERAGE DEFENSE SPENDING BY REGION(2005-2024)

3- MANNED SPACEFLIGHT
GOVERNMENT SPENDING FOR MANNED SPACEFLIGHT (2005-2024)
SHARE OF MANNED SPACEFLIGHT IN TOTAL BUDGET (2005-2024)
CIVIL AND DEFENSE SPENDING (2005-2024)
TOP 5 COUNTRIES / AGENCIES (2005-2024)
WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE FOR HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT (2014-2024)
YEARLY AVERAGE SPENDING BY REGION (2005-2024)

4- SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS
SPENDING FOR SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS BY REGION (2005–2024)
WORLD BUDGET VS. SATELLITES LAUNCHED (2005–2024)
CIVIL AND DEFENSE SPENDING (2005–2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY REGION (2005–2024)
SPENDING FOR CIVIL SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS
TOP 5 COUNTRIES/AGENCIES
CIVIL SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY REGION

5- LAUNCHERS
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY EMERGING PROGRAMS
SAMPLE COSTS OF SATELLITES
PROFILE OF ASSETS ORDERED BY EMERGING PROGRAMS
SPENDING FOR DEFENSE SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS
DEFENSE SATELLITES LAUNCHED
US DOD EXPENSES FOR COMMERCIAL CAPACITY
WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND SATELLITES LAUNCHED FOR SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS PROGRAMS (2005-2024)
YEARLY AVERAGE CIVIL SPENDING BY REGION (2005-2024)
YEARLY AVERAGE DEFENSE SPENDING BY REGION (2005-2024)

6- SATELLITE NAVIGATION
SPENDING FOR SATELLITE NAVIGATION BY REGION (2005-2024)
BUDGET VS. SATELLITES (2005-2024)
CIVIL AND DEFENSE SPENDING (2005-2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY REGION (2005-2024)
TOP COUNTRIES/AGENCIES
WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND SATELLITES LAUNCHED FOR SATELLITE NAVIGATIONS PROGRAMS (2005-2024)
CUMULATED INVESTMENT IN SATELLITE NAVIGATION (2005-2024)
CUMULATED NUMBER OF SATELLITES LAUNCHED (2005-2024)

7- SPACE SCIENCE AND EXPLORATION
GOVERNMENT SPENDING FOR SPACE SCIENCE (2005-2024)
CONCENTRATION OF SPENDING
MISSIONS LAUNCHED BY REGION (2005-2024)
WORLD BUDGET VS. MISSIONS LAUNCHED (2005-2024)
TOP COUNTRIES / AGENCIES (2005-2024)
INVESTMENT IN DEVELOPING PROGRAMS (2005-2024)
EVOLUTION OF AVERAGE INVESTMENT (2005-2024)
MISSIONS TO BE LAUNCHED BY APPLICATION
NUMBER OF DEVELOPING SCIENCE PROGRAMS
WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND SATELLITE LAUNCHED FOR SPACE SCIENCE PROGRAMS (2005-2024)
YEARLY AVERAGE SPENDING BY REGION
BREAKDOWN BY APPLICATION (2005–2024)


8- SPACE SECURITY
GOVERNMENT SPENDING FOR SPACE SECURITY(2005-2024)
WORLD BUDGET VS. SATELLITES LAUNCHED (2005-2024)
CIVIL AND DEFENSE SPENDING (2005-2024)
TOP 5 COUNTRIES/AGENCIES (2005-2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED BY REGION
WORLD GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES AND SATELLITES LAUNCHED FOR SPACE SECURITY PROGRAMS (2005-2024)
YEARLY AVERAGE SPENDING BY REGION (2005–2024)
BREAKDOWN BY APPLICATION (2005–2024)


LIST OF TABLES

01- STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
EVOLUTION OF SPACE INVESTMENT 2005-2024
3 DECADES OF GOVERNMENTS INVESTMENT IN SPACE PROGRAMS
FORECAST EXPENDITURE (IN US$ MILLION)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED AND TO BE LAUNCHED

02- EARTH OBSERVATION
FORECAST EXPENDITURE (US$ M) (2015-2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED AND TO BE LAUNCHED (2005-2024)

03- MANNED SPACEFLIGHT
CARGO DELIVERY VEHICLES
MANNED SPACE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
FORECAST EXPENDITURE (IN US$ MILLION) (2005–2024)

04- LAUNCHERS
OPERATIONAL EXPENDABLE LAUNCH VEHICLES (ELV) AND THEIR EVOLUTIONS
EMERGED ELV PROGRAMS
BATCH ORDERS OF LAUNCH VEHICLES TO REDUCE COST
PRIVATELY FUNDED LAUNCHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE USA (payload of 100kg+)
FORECAST EXPENDITURE (IN US$ MILLION) (2005–2024)

05- SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS
MILSATCOM SYSTEMS CURRENTLY IN OPERATION
TRADITIONAL AND ALTERNATIVE PROCUREMENT MODELS FOR MILSATCOM
FORECAST EXPENDITURE (IN US$ MILLION) (2005–2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED AND TO BE LAUNCHED (2005–2024)

06- SATELLITE NAVIGATION
SUMMARY OF EXISTING SBAS SYSTEMS
SUMMARY OF EXISTING GNSS SYSTEMS
FORECAST EXPENDITURE (IN US$ MILLION)(2005–2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED AND TO BE LAUNCHED (2005–2024)


07- SPACE SCIENCE AND EXPLORATION
SCIENCE AND EXPLORATION SATELLITES
FORECAST EXPENDITURE (IN US$ MILLION) (2005–2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED AND TO BE LAUNCHED (2005–2024)


08- SPACE SECURITY
SPACE SECURITY APPLICATIONS
SURVEILLANCE PROGRAMS
EARLY WARNING AND ELINT PROGRAMS
CIVIL AND DUAL-USE PROGRAMS
FORECAST EXPENDITURE (IN US$ MILLION) (2005–2024)
SATELLITES LAUNCHED AND TO BE LAUNCHED (2005–2024)

METHODOLOGY & ACRONYMS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

01- STRATEGIC OUTLOOK

TRENDS AND FORECASTS FOR GOVERNMENT SPACE FUNDING
•SECOND CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF DECREASE FOR SPACE BUDGETS
•DEFENSE PROGRAMS WILL DRIVE RECOVERY OF SPACE BUDGETS
TRENDS AND FORECASTS FOR GOVERNMENT SATELLITE LAUNCHES
•RECORD IN SATELLITE LAUNCHES IN 2014 WITH 86 SATELLITES
•CIVIL MISSIONS DRIVE THE INCREASE IN SATELLITE LAUNCHES
BENCHMARK OF FUNDING AND SATELLITE LAUNCHES BY REGIONS 
•EMERGING PROGRAMS DRIVE GROWTH, ESPECIALLY IN ASIA
BENCHMARK OF FUNDING AND SATELLITE LAUNCHES BY REGIONS
•EARTH OBSERVATION DRIVES INVESTMENT OF EMERGING COUNTRIES
BREAKDOWN OF FUNDING AND SATELLITE LAUNCHES BY APPLICATIONS
•OBSERVATION BECOMES FIRST APPLICATION, AHEAD OF MANNED
SPACEFLIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME
•BREAKDOWN OF FUNDING AND SATELLITE LAUNCHES BY APPLICATIONS
KEY FIGURES

02- EARTH OBSERVATION

TRENDS IN EARTH OBSERVATION PROGRAMS
•GLOBAL BUDGETS TO PEAK IN 2018
•ASIA WILL SUPPORT THE 54% INCREASE IN SATELLITES LAUNCHED
CIVIL EARTH OBSERVATION PROGRAMS
•BUDGETS TO STABILIZE AFTER HISTORICAL GROWTH
CIVIL EARTH OBSERVATION PROGRAMS
•BUDGETS TO STABILIZE AFTER HISTORICAL GROWTH
CIVIL EARTH OBSERVATION PROGRAMS
•EMERGED PROGRAMS DIVERSIFY
•NEW ENTRANTS TO PURSUE EO PROGRAMS
DEFENSE EARTH OBSERVATION PROGRAMS
•STABLE DEFENSE EXPENDITURES DISGUISE INTERNAL DYNAMICS
•DUAL-USE, A WAY OF SPREADING COSTS
METEOROLOGY PROGRAMS
•PROGRAMS FOCUS ON LEO AND GEO REPLENISHMENT
SELECTED ISSUES
•DATA AUGMENTATION THROUGH COMMERCIAL SOLUTIONS
•TECH. TRANSFER THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR CAPACITY BUILDING
•“HIGH-END” DIRECT PROCUREMENT
KEY FIGURES

03- MANNED SPACEFLIGHT

TRENDS IN MANNED SPACEFLIGHT
•GROWING INVESTMENT AHEAD
•HIGH COST LIMITS THE NUMBER OF INVESTORS
PACE INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICE
•EXTENDED OPERATION OF THE ISS IS BEING DEBATED
•NATIONAL INITIATIVES FROM RUSSIA AND CHINA
MANNED TRANSPORTATION AND EXPLORATION
•ISS SERVICING RELIES ON RUSSIAN SOYUZ VEHICLE
•MANNED EXPLORATION PROGRAMS UNDER DEFINITION
SELECTED ISSUES
•FUNDING WILL BE CHALLENGING
•NO CLEAR VISION BEYOND THE ISS
•REGULATION IS BECOMING A TOPICAL ISSUE
•INDIVIDUAL PRIORITIES HAMPER EXTENDED COOPERATION
•THE SPACE INDUSTRY MAY BE AN EARLY PARTNER FOR EXPLORATION
KEY FIGURES

04- LAUNCH VEHICLES

TRENDS IN LAUNCH VEHICLES
•TABLE FUNDING EXPECTED, AROUND $8 BILLION PER YEAR
•RUSSIA CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE GLOBAL FUNDING
LAUNCH VEHICLE PROGRAMS
•NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SPACE POWERS…
•WITH DIFFERENT GOALS AND STRATEGIES
EMERGED AND EMERGING LAUNCH VEHICLE PROGRAMS
•HALF BUDGET CAN BE SPENT ON ELV DEVELOPMENT
•FOUR NEW ENTRANTS ALLOCATE FUNDING
SELECTED ISSUES IN GOVERNMENT LAUNCH SERVICES
•DIFFERENT PATHS TO LAUNCH COST REDUCTION
•THE TRANSITION TO NEW LAUNCHERS IS CHALLENGING
DUOPOLE FOR COMMERCIAL LAUNCHES; NEW ENTRANTS TARGET LEO
•REDUCING RELIANCE ON FOREIGN TECHNOLOGY
•LAUNCH FLEXIBILITY WITH LOW-COST SYSTEMS
KEY FIGURES

05- SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS

TRENDS IN SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS PROGRAMS
•GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT SLOWED IN RECENT YEARS
•44 COUNTRIES WILL LAUNCH 187 SATELLITES; +29% GROWTH
CIVIL SATELLITE COMMUNICATION PROGRAMS
•ASIA WILL LEAD CIVIL SATCOM EXPENDITURES
CIVIL SATELLITE COMMUNICATION PROGRAMS
•37 EMERGING COUNTRIES WILL PROCURE DOMESTIC SATELLITES
DEFENSE SATELLITE COMMUNICATION PROGRAMS
•NEWCOMERS DO NOT COMPENSATE FOR THE U.S. BUDGET DROP
•ASIA WILL DRIVE GROWTH IN THE COMING DECADE
•BUDGET CONSTRAINTS LEAD TO INNOVATIVE PROCUREMENTS
KEY FIGURES

06- SATELLITE NAVIGATION

TRENDS IN SATELLITE NAVIGATION PROGRAMS
•CONCENTRATED INVESTMENT PEAKED AT $4.5 BILLION IN 2014
•OVER 120 SATELLITES FOR REPLENISHMENT AND NEW SYSTEMS
KEY SATELLITE NAVIGATION PROGRAMS
SELECTED ISSUES
•GNSS DEVELOPMENT IS OFTEN OUT OF TIME AND COSTS
•SYSTEM MODERNIZATIONS FOR IMPROVED AVAILABILITY
•GOVERNMENTS AIM AT DEVELOPING THE GNSS MARKET
KEY FIGURES

07-SPACE SCIENCE AND EXPLORATION

TRENDS IN LEADING PROGRAMS
•ASTROPHYSICS MISSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE INVESTMENT
TRENDS IN OTHER PROGRAMS
•PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR NEW PROGRAMS
•MINIMIZING THE RISKS OF COOPERATION
•SAMPLE RETURN IS THE NEXT STEP FOR PLANETARY SCIENCE
•THE RISE OF MORE AFFORDABLE SMALL SCIENCE MISSIONS
•AGING SPACE OBSERVATORIES THREATEN DATA CONTINUITY
KEY FIGURES

08- SPACE SECURITY

$2 BILLION INVESTED BY 8 COUNTRIES IN 2014
•DEFENSE SPENDING CLOSE TO 90%
TRENDS IN SPACE SECURITY
•STABILITY IN NUMBER OF SATELLITES; DEFENSE DOMINATES
•SPACE COMPLEMENTS THE GROUND SURVEILLANCE NETWORKS
•EARLY WARNING AND ELINT FACE BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
•CIVIL PROGRAMS LIMITED SO FAR
SELECTED ISSUES
•COOPERATION IS EXPANDING
•THE NEED FOR GOVERNANCE
•PRIVATE ACTORS SHOW INTEREST
•COORDINATED ACTION NEEDED AGAINST JAMMING AND SPOOFING
KEY FIGURES

Editor- in-Chief

Steve Bochinger,  COO

Development Team

Jean-Baptiste Thepaut, Senior Consultant and Project Manager
Sylvie Bellin, Consultant
Maxime Puteaux, Consultant

 

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