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Satellite-Based Earth Observation: Market Prospects to 2022

Satellite-Based Earth Observation: Market Prospects to 2022. The only source for comprehensive industry analysis & forecasts in the growing EO sector. | Published September 2013

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Now in its 6th edition, Satellite-Based Earth Observation, Market Prospects to 2022 is the only report providing industry forecasts, assessment of business opportunities and analysis of the entire value chain for this growing segment of the satellite industry. It includes a detailed breakdown of application sectors within each region along with consolidated forecasts per application sector and per region

Highlights from the report:
The number of Earth observation (EO) satellites launched by civil government and  commercial entities is expected to more than double over the next decade to 360 satellites,  translating into $35.8 billion in manufacturing revenues over 2013 to 2022, an 88% increase  over the previous decade. New government and commercial entrants are anticipated, with organizations from 42 countries expected to have launched at least a first-generation EO satellite by 2022.

The market for commercial EO data was valued at $1.5 billion in 2012. Growth slowed to 7% over 2011 as a result of the stabilization of U.S. defense procurement, however North America maintains the largest market share with 55% of the total commercial data market. The U.S. NGA will also remain the first customer of commercial data in 2013 despite its reduction in data procurement, an action which led to the combination of the U.S. operators DigitalGlobe and GeoEye in 2013. The net effect of this reduced procurement over 2012 to 2013 will however result in 0% growth in the industry, a figure which disguises growth opportunities elsewhere.

Although manufacturing revenues will experience a significant rise, the average cost of an EO satellite (excluding meteorology) continues to fall. This is due in the main part to a growing number of satellites being launched from more cost-sensitive emerging national programs. In total over 2013-2022, 69% of EO satellites will cost less that $100 million (compared to 56% in the last decade).

The EO commercial data market is expected to reach $3.5 billion by 2022. Despite relatively slow growth in North America and Europe, demand in all other regions remains in double-digits: Latin America, Russia & CIS, Asia, and the Middle East all report 15%+ growth (5 year CAGR). Data demand is high to support wider economic growth with applications spanning natural resources monitoring, engineering and infrastructure, and defense.

Report elements:

  • Over 200 pages
  • More than 150 full page graphs and tables
  • PDF, Excel & PPT Files


Key trends, drivers & forecasts:

  • Current and forecast market situation to 2022, full assessment of challenges, risks and growth drivers
  • Assessment of commercial opportunities including commercial data demand by data typology & sector
  • Assessment of commercial opportunities by satellite manufacturing

 

DETAILED VALUE-CHAIN ANALYSIS

  • Assessment of opportunities and challenges across the industry
  • Analysis of government investment, operators, distributors and service providers


EO DATA DEMAND

  • Broadened analysis of data demand and requirements: Drivers and risks for growth
  • Opportunities for data & services growth across regions


SATELLITES LAUNCHED & FORECAST

  • Launches from 2003-2012
  • Expected launches through 2022
  • Satellite imaging characteristics
  • Operator typology
  • Prime manufacturer/launch service provider / uncontracted satellite missions


NEW! to this edition:

  • Detailed breakdown of application sectors within each region
  • Consolidated forecasts per application sector and per region


Who will benefit from this report?

  • Space agencies & other government entities
  • Satellite operators
  • Satellite equipment manufacturers
  • Launch services
  • Satellite service providers
  • Banks & investors

 

Listing of tables & graphs:

Graphs:


1-Strategic Issues and Forecast

  • Landscape Of Government Earth Observation Programs (World, 2012)
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data Sales: Optical And Radar (World, 2003, 2012)
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data Sales By User (World, 2003, 2012)
  • Earth Observation Data Prices: Optical
  • Earth Observation Data Prices: Optical And SAR Comparison
  • Earth Observation Satellites Launched (World, 2003,2012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Optical And Radar Commercial High Resolution Operational Satellites Based On
  • Anticipated Lifespans (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Earth Observation Data Sales: Optical And Radar (World, 2003, 2012, And Forecast To 2022)
  • Earth Observation Data Sales: Optical And Radar (World, 2003, 2012, And Forecast To 2022)
  • Earth Observation Satellites To Be Launched By Operator Type (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2022)
  • Earth Observation Satellites Manufacturing Market Value: Distribution By Operator Type (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2022)


2- The Industry

  • Earth Observation Value Chain, 2012
  • Earth Observation Satellites Manufacturing Values:
  • Distribution Of Missions By Price Range (World, 2003, 012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Earth Observation Satellites Manufacturing Values:
  • Distribution By Region Of Satellite Ownership (World, 2003,2012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Earth Observation Satellites Manufacturing Values:
  • Distribution By Region Of Prime Contractor (World, 2003,2012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Earth Observation Satellites Manufacturing Values:
  • Distribution By Prime Contractor (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Meteorology Satellites Manufacturing Values: Distribution By Region Of Satellite
  • Ownership (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Meteorology Satellites Manufacturing Values: Distribution By Region Of Prime
  • Contractor (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Meteorology Satellites Manufacturing Values: Distribution By Prime Contractor(World, 2003, 2012 And Forecasts To 2022)
  • Geo Earth Observation And Meteorological Satellites Launch Services:
  • Distribution By Launch Service Provider (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2022)
  • Leo Earth Observation And Meteorological Satellites Launch Services:
  • Distribution By Launch Service Provider (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2022)
  • Commercially Operated Satellites (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2022)
  • Government Operated Satellites With Commercial Data (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2022)
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data: Distributors By Region (World, 2012)
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data: Data Distribution Networks By Region (World, 2012)
  • Top Five Budgets For Earth Observation Programs (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2016)
  • Earth Observation Satellites From Emerging / In-Development Space Programs (World, 2003,2012 And Forecast To 2022)
  • Top Two Budgets For Meteorological Satellite Programs (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2016)
  • Meteorology Satellites (World, 2003, 2012 And Forecast To 2022)


1-Strategic Issues and Forecast

  • Landscape Of Government Earth Observation Programs (World, 2012)
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data Sales: Optical And Radar (World, 2003,2012)
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data Sales By User (World, 2003,2012)
  • Earth Observation Data Prices: Optical
  • Earth Observation Data Prices: Optical And SAR Comparison
  • Earth Observation Satellites Launched (World, 2003,2012 And Forecasts To 2022)


3-Sector and Regional Demand

  • Overview Commercial Data Market By Sector
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data: Demand By Sector (World, 2003,2012 And Forecast To 2022)
  • Defense Commercial Data Market By Region
  • Natural Resource Monitoring Commercial Data Market By Region
  • Energy Commercial Data Market By Region
  • Infrastructure And Engineering Commercial Data Market By Region
  • Location Based Services Commercial Data Market By Region
  • Maritime Operations Commercial Data Market By Region
  • Disaster Management Commercial Data Market By Region
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data: Demand By Region
  • Overview Commercial Data Market By Region
  • Earth Observation Commercial Data: Demand By Region (World, 2003,2012 And Forecast To 2022)
  • North America Commercial Data Market By Sector
  • Europe Commercial Data Market By Sector
  • Latin America Commercial Data Market By Sector
  • Middle East Commercial Data Market By Sector
  • Rest Of Asia Commercial Data Market By Sector
  • Russia And CIS Commercial Data Market By Sector
  • Southeast Asia And Oceania Commercial Data Market By Sector
  • Africa Commercial Data Market By Sector


Tables:


1- Strategic Issues and Forecast

  • Relative Data Usage By Sector
  • U.S. EO Regulatory Framework
  • Current U.S. Commercial EO Licenses, Satellites To Be Launched
  • Global / Regional Initiatives On Open Data
  • Summary Of Data Policy By Country
  • Key Industry Drivers By Application Area
  • Industry Risks By Application Area
  • UAV Categories And Characteristics
  • Comparison Of Data Costs
  • Comparison Of Satellites Capabilities
  • Summary Of Current And Future EO Lower Cost / Free Data Missions
  • Satellites To Be Launched By Operator


2- The Industry

  • Two Decades Of EO Satellites (Excluding Meteorology)
  • Two Decades Of Meteorology Satellites
  • Record And Backlog Of European Manufacturers
  • Record And Backlog Of North American Manufacturers
  • Record And Backlog Of Chinese Manufacturers
  • Record And Backlog Of Asian And Russian And CIS Manufacturers
  • European TTP And / Or Export Missions
  • Emerging Manufacturers
  • Two Decades Of Launch Services For EO And Meteorology Satellites
  • Launch Vehicles Available For EO And Meteorology Satellites
  • Launch Service Providers And Vehicles For EO And Meteorology Satellites
  • Major Commercial Operators’ Financial Performance 2012
  • Geoeye
  • DigitalGlobe
  • DigitalGlobe EO Satellites
  • AstriumEO Satellites
  • MDA / CSA EO Satellites
  • Imagesat EO Satellites
  • Deimos EO Satellites
  • Dmcii EO Satellites
  • SkyboxEO Satellites
  • Commercial Operators’ Global Distribution Networks
  • New Reseller Contracts Signed By Operators Over A Year
  • New Reseller Contracts Signed, Two-Year Comparison (Astrium, DigitalGlobe, MDA, RapidEye)
  • Total Number Of Reseller Agreements By Region
  • Sample Of Leading Data Distributors
  • Commercial Operators’ Internet Services
  • Upcoming U.S. Environment Monitoring Satellites
  • Investments In ESA’s EO Program Vs National Civil EO Investment (Million, 2012)
  • Copernicus Services
  • Summary Of Copernicus Funding By EC And ESA
  • ESA’s Upcoming Environment Monitoring Satellites
  • Future National European Satellite Missions
  • ISRO and Kari’s Future Satellite Program
  • Argentina and Brazil’s Future Satellite Program
  • Summary Of Emerging EO Programs
  • Current And Future EO Dual-Use Systems
  • Leading Meteorology Programs
  • Developing And Emerging Meteorology Programs


3-Sector and Regional Demand

  • Summary Of Primary Data Requirements For Key Applications
  • Defense Data Requirements
  • Natural Resource Monitoring Data Requirements
  • Energy Data Requirements
  • Infrastructure And Engineering Data Requirements
  • Partnerships Between Commercial Operators And Content Providers
  • Lbs Data Requirements
  • Maritime Operations Data Requirements-Disaster Management Data Requirements
  • International Disaster Charter Organization Members And Satellite Resources
  • Environment Monitoring Application Areas And Supporting Missions
  • Environment Monitoring Data Requirements
  • Data Sales By Region 2013, 2022
  • North America Commercial Data Market Overview
  • Europe Commercial Data Market Overview
  • Latin America Commercial Data Market Overview
  • Middle East Commercial Data Market Overview
  • Rest Of Asia Commercial Data Market Overview
  • Russia And CIS Commercial Data Market Overview
  • Southeast Asia And Oceania Commercial Data Market Overview
  • Africa Commercial Data Market Overview

 

1-Strategic Issues and Forecasts
164 EO Satellites Launched Over the Last Decade

  • Government investment driven by developing and emerging programs
  • Industry growth opportunities looking beyond home markets
  • Commercial data sales grew 7% in the last year
  • Data requirements vary by application
  • very high-resolution optical data takes up the majority of sales
  • Diversification of client base required to support industry health

 

New Regulatory Proposals to Progress the Development of Industry

  • Increased provision of information calls for regulation beyond addressing security concerns
  • U.S. focus as most evolved framework
  • Shift in NGA strategy still leaves opportunities for commercial providers
  • Ten further U.S. entities have licenses to operate commercial satellites
  • U.S. budget pressure promotes private initiatives for meteorology supply
  • Other countries' national legislation
  • Data policy implications for EO industry
  • The impact of freely available data
  • Data policies set independently for each satellite or typology of end user
  • Copernicus in transition phase from research to operations
  • Copernicus ownership remains an issue
  • U.S. export regulation relaxed

 

Drivers and Risks Along The EO Value Chain

  • Global unrest and regional economic development are supporting demand
  • Main risks for the EO industry
  • Comparing aerial and satellite solutions

 

Commercial Data Pricing Strategies

  • Satellite capabilities have a direct impacton data pricing
  • Data pricing variation explained
  • Data discounts
  • More governments seeking tocommercialize data

 

Manufacturing and Commercial Data Opportunities Expected To Develop In Emerging Markets

  • Polarizing satellite development costs
  • Satellite launches to become increasingly global
  • Increasing data supply presents opportunities and challenges
  • Does the industry risk commercial oversupply?


2-The Industry

Growth across the Value Chain despite a Challenging Economic Environment

  • Manufacturing revenues to increase by 88% over the decade
  • Number of EO satellites to double from one decade to the next
  • Tightening budgets favor the increase of lower-cost and more responsive missions
  • Number of countries with satellite integration capabilities continues to increase
  • Emerging markets present new opportunities for manufacturers
  • Meteorology manufacturing revenues to increase by 57%
  • Meteorology manufacturing revenues driven by expansion of programs
  • Prime manufacturers dependent on domestic meteorology programs
  • Leading primes concentrated in leading space nations
  • Manufacturing revenues in Europe to grow by 53%
  • North American primes increase their backlog value by 19%
  • China expected to increase launch rate over the next decade
  • CIS, South Korea, Japan, and India markets to experience strong growth
  • Emerging EO manufacturers build expertise through partnerships with established manufacturers
  • Technology transfer programs main mechanism to acquire domestic capabilities
  • Asian manufacturers capture a growing number of export contracts
  • Emerging programs support the rise of new manufacturer

 

Launch Services Revenues to Increase to $8.7 Billion Over Next Decade

  • Launch services revenues driven by domestic demand
  • Emerging and commercial EO satellite programs may face a launch capacity bottleneck

 

The Commercial Data Market Totals $1.5 Billion In 2012

  • Restructuring and diversification of commercial supply
  • DigitalGlobe/GeoEye merger complete
  • Non-U.S. government expenditure growing
  • End-users show preferences for different distribution mechanisms


Consolidated Industry
Financials

  • Profiles of commercial operators
  • DigitalGlobe
  • Astrium
  • MDA
  • ImageSat
  • RapidEye
  • Deimos Imaging
  • DMCii

 

New Operators Potential to Question The Existing Business Model

  • Skybox Imaging
  • Planet Labs
  • Russian Gazprom to launch SMOTR constellation

 

Emerging Operators to Deliver Meteorology/Environmental Data

  • GeoMetWatch
  • GeoOptics
  • Planet IQ

 

Blurred Division between Value Added Services and Data Distribution

  • Differing typologies of distribution agreements
  • Multiple motivations to sign reseller agreements
  • stability in distribution contract agreements
  • Commercial operators focus on expansion in home regions
  • Resellers typically offer wider geospatial services
  • online libraries deliver data directly to commercial users
  • VAS offered by differing actors within the supply chain
  • Profiles of value-adding companies

 

Civil Governments Invested $7.7 Billion In EO In 2012

  • U.S. continues Landsat mission, but no direct replacements for other flagship missions
  • European investments equate to $1.4 billion
  • Commitments required to ensure Copernicus development
  • ESA left with limited data collection capability
  • European countries' national programs push forward specializations
  • France's national civil EO budget rises to support Pleiades
  • Italy sustains radar flagship program and technology-driven missions
  • Synergies with defense to potentially assist in developing Germany's civil program
  • Asian countries prioritize national coverage capabilities
  • China launches its new high-definition EO system
  • Japan develops global environment and disaster prevention missions
  • RUssia expands its fleet amidst several launch postponements
  • Russia revives domestic program for natural resource and disaster monitoring
  • Rapidly expanding programs focus on autonomy while serving operational requirements
  • KARI's first SAR satellite Launched
  • Brazil increases technical contribution to missions
  • Argentina expands program through cooperation
  • Emerging programs developing EO capacity
  • Key drivers for EO capability development
  • More countries set to establish capabilities through technology transfer
  • Cost sharing enabled through dual-use systems
  • Italy prepares for Cosmo-Skymed second generation
  • France's Pleiades system now fully operational
  • Spain's first major EO system combines radar and optical components
  • Continued roll-out of EO satellites in Turkey
  • RCM to increase Canadian SAR data collection capabilities

 

Meteorology Investment Is Led By A Few Countries

  • Leading meteorology agencies renew their fleets, increasing synergies
  • NOAA runs potential risk of polar-orbiting data gap
  • Eumetsat continues fleet renewal and strengthens Copernicus involvement

 

3- Sector and Regional Demand
Sector Demand Overview

  • Only defense captures more than 10% data market share
  • Varying user typology for EO solutions

 

Defense

  • Only defense captures more than 10% data market share
  • EO data to support IMINT and GEOINT applications
  • Focus on very high-resolution, high-accuracy data
  • Direct access to satellite proving successful among defense users

 

Natural Resource Mining

  • NRM applications total $120 million of commercial data market
  • Multiple applications based on change detection
  • Lower resolution data can suffice for multiple applications
  • Civil government at various levels the key user


Energy

  • Growing global demand supports EO innovations in energy
  • EO solutions serve applications during operations lifetime
  • Wide-ranging requirements for applications
  • Private enterprises account for majority of end-users

 

Infrastructure and Engineering

  • Data sales to infrastructure and engineering totals $110 million in 2012
  • Applications expansion with higher-resolution data sets
  • Moderate to high-resolution optical data covers multiple application areas
  • Public and private sectors work in close cooperation

 

Location-based Services

  • LBS applications gaining traction
  • LBS intelligence applications emerging
  • Developing applications diversify data requirements
  • B2B, B2C focus in LBS

 

Maritime Operations

  • Increased global shipping a driver for EO data use
  • Ship tracking and surveillance becoming an operational service
  • Key sector SAR data use
  • Public sector/ civil security usage

 

Disaster Management

  • Disaster management accounts for low percentage of commercial data revenues
  • EO data supports entire disaster life cycle applications
  • Low latency and very high resolution critical factors
  • Disaster management efforts coordinated by international organizations


Environment Monitoring

  • Demand is high, though budget concerns over supply
  • Applications span climate variables
  • Strong variation in data requires specific instrumentation
  • Research community and the public the primary users

 

Region Overview

  • North America and Europe total 70% data market, though higher growth elsewhere


NORTH AMERICA

  • Reduction U.S. defense procurement slows overall growth
  • North America data market forecast to reach $1.3 billion in 2022


EUROPE

  • Europe growing at a slower rate
  • Europe data forecast to reach $500 million in 2022
  • Commercial data market by sector

 

LATIN AMERICA

  • Growing demand to support resources, infrastructure, and defense applications
  • Latin America data market forecast to reach $390 million in 2022
  • Commercial data market by sector

 

MIDDLE EAST

  • Defense and energy the primary demand sectors for EO data
  • EO demand expected to diversify, though defense still paramount
  • Commercial data market by sector

 

REST OF ASIA

  • Applications to support economic growth developing in stature
  • EO demand expected to diversify, though defense still paramount

 

RUSSIA AND CIS

  • Applications to support economic growth developing in stature
  • Engineering and infrastructure projects expected to further support growth

 

SOUTHEAST ASIA AND OCEANIA

  • Applications to support economic growth developing in stature
  • Overall economic development supporting EO growth

 

AFRICA

  • EO date market in Africa reaches $40M in 2012
  • Educating end-users and demonstrating cost-benefit will help drive growth

 

4-Satellites Launched To 2012, Planned/Forecast To 2022

  • Earth observation satellites launched to 2012, planned/ forecast to 2022
  • Meteorology satellites launched to 2012, planned/ forecast to 2022

Editor-In-Chief:

Adam Keith, Director, Space & Earth Observation

Development Team:

Philippe Campenon, Deputy Director, Space & Earth Observation
Ricardo Topham, Consultant
Timiebi Aganaba, Consultant

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