Satellite manufacturers and launch providers think strong demand for new services, coupled with the availability of export credit agency financing, may largely compensate for an expected dip in replacement-satellite buys, helping to avoid a severe order downturn.

Analysts have predicted for months that the market will retrench as satellite operators, led by the Big Four fixed satellite service (FSS) players—Intelsat, SES, Eutelsat and Telesat—wind down fleet replenishment programs. Indeed, the consensus at last week’s World Satellite Business Week forum here, organized by Euroconsult, was that FSS geostationary Earth-orbit satellite orders—the key industry indicator—will likely drop below 20 units per year starting in 2012-13, from a high of more than 30 expected this year, confirming earlier forecasts (AW&ST Mar. 15, p. 48).